The following is excerpted from an article by Edward J. Lincoln, Clinical Economics Professor at New York University, Stern School of Business and Director of the Center for Japan-U.S. Business and Economic Studies. He writes his thoughts on Japanese Newspaper Polls concerning the state of economic affairs. _________________________________________________________________________
The collection of polls monitored and translated recently provides a fascinating look at economic issues in Japan over the past nine months. Mostly they confirm my suspicion that economic problems are not getting as much attention in Japan as they are in the United States.
But the questions and responses also involve a number of odd or puzzling features of public opinion about economic issues.
Let me pick up the thread nine months ago, in August 2008. At that point in time, people should have just begun to become aware of the economic downturn in Japan. In the background was the ongoing financial crisis in the United States. Even though Japanese financial institutions had not invested heavily in American toxic assets, there was a growing recognition that the recession in the United States would have some negative impact on Japan.
Preliminary statistics on GDP released on August 13 for the 2nd quarter of the year indicated a rather substantial dip in total output. Meanwhile, employment had begun falling modestly since February.
These developments prompted Nihon Keizai Shimbun to ask several economic questions in its August poll. When given a choice of different indicators that made people aware that the economy was facing a downturn, however, the largest number (58%) chose rising prices for gasoline, food, and other commodities.
This, of course, has nothing to do with an economic downturn!
Therefore, when 82% of respondents to Asahi Shimbun’s poll in August indicated that they were feeling “very” or “somewhat” pinched economically, one has to conclude that most of them felt pinched by higher gasoline and food prices, not personal distress from the recession.
But from February through April this year, economic questions practically disappear. This is very odd. By February, evidence was appearing that finally showed the economy to be experiencing the worst economic contraction since the end of the Second World War.
So where was the reporting on this very serious issue?
Part 2 of this excerpt will post tomorrow morning.
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The Center for Japan-U.S. Business and Economic Studies was formed in 1984 with the mission to provide the Stern Business School, the wider NYU community, and the public with information and analysis of the Japanese economy, U.S.-Japan economic relations, and broader East Asian economic issues. Professor Edward Lincoln has been the director of the Center since fall of 2006.
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